PhD Production
China surpassed the US in annual STEM PhD production around 2018. The US still leads in total doctorates produced (~55,000/year), but China is the larger STEM PhD producer. PhD growth has continued in most OECD countries, while postdoctoral and faculty positions have not expanded in step — creating a structural mismatch between supply and academic demand.
Key insights
China's STEM PhD output exceeds the US
China awards approximately 80,000 STEM PhDs annually, vs ~40,000 in the US. The gap has widened steadily since ~2007. PhD quality varies more in China than in the US — top Chinese universities (Tsinghua, Peking, USTC) produce internationally competitive graduates; lower-tier institutions vary widely. Research output measured by publications and citations now favors China in many STEM fields.
US doctoral education is internationally fed
Foreign students earn 50-80% of US PhDs in many STEM fields (engineering, computer science, math, physics). After graduation, ~75% remain in the US for at least 5 years — the major US 'science talent inflow' channel. Restrictive visa policies, geopolitical tensions, and rising Asian university capacity threaten this pipeline. The US share of global STEM PhDs has fallen from ~35% (2000) to ~18% (2024).
Postdoc bottleneck
Universities produce far more PhDs than they hire as tenure-track faculty. Academic labor markets in many fields (history, English, biology) are at multi-decade lows for new hires per PhD produced. Industry, government and non-profit sectors absorb many graduates — but academic-track careers are increasingly minority outcomes. The mismatch raises ethical questions about doctoral training pace and structure.
Annual STEM PhDs awarded — selected countries
Thousands per year (latest available)
Show data table
| STEM PhDs per year (thousands) | |
|---|---|
| China | 80 |
| USA | 40 |
| Germany | 16 |
| UK | 14 |
| India | 11 |
| Japan | 7 |
| France | 7 |
| Russia | 7 |
| South Korea | 6 |
| Spain | 5 |
| Italy | 5 |
| Australia | 5 |
| Canada | 5 |
| Brazil | 11 |
Key Finding: China leads in STEM PhDs; US, EU and India follow; per-capita production highest in Switzerland and Sweden.
Foreign-born share of US STEM PhD recipients (2023)
% of new PhDs in each field who are not US citizens or permanent residents
Show data table
| % foreign-born | |
|---|---|
| Computer science | 79 |
| Engineering | 75 |
| Mathematics | 68 |
| Economics | 55 |
| Physical sciences | 52 |
| Biological sciences | 43 |
| Geosciences | 38 |
| Psychology | 15 |
Key Finding: Engineering, computer science and math depend heavily on foreign-born talent.
Methodology & caveats
STEM definitions in PhD context
STEM PhD definitions vary — NSF Science & Engineering Indicators uses science, engineering, agriculture, health (research). Some definitions exclude health, some include economics. The Chinese system includes broader engineering and applied sciences than US categories. Direct cross-country comparisons require careful field mapping.
PhD time-to-completion
US PhDs typically take 5-7 years from bachelor's; Chinese PhDs typically 3-4 years from master's plus 5 years from bachelor's; UK PhDs 3-4 years from master's plus 1-2 years from bachelor's. The time difference matters for comparing annual output flows — Chinese system produces graduates faster but with less doctoral-level research training time.
After the PhD
Career outcomes vary by field. Mathematics, computer science, finance economics: industry routes are well-established; PhDs widely valuable. Humanities and some social sciences: tenure-track placement increasingly difficult; alt-academic careers are becoming the norm. Biology: oversupply has been documented for decades; postdoc positions absorb the gap with low pay and uncertain trajectory.