Coal Decline
Global coal consumption hit an all-time high of 8.7 billion tonnes in 2024, even as OECD coal use is at multi-decade lows. The pattern: OECD coal consumption has fallen ~50% since 2007, almost entirely displaced by gas and renewables. Asian coal use — China 4.5 Bt, India 1.2 Bt — continues to grow. Global emissions from coal remain near 15 Gt CO₂/year.
Key insights
OECD coal is in structural retreat
US coal consumption fell from 1.1 Bt (2007) to 0.4 Bt (2024) — driven by cheap shale gas in the 2010s and accelerating utility-scale renewables since 2018. UK coal in power generation: from 41% (2013) to under 2% (2024). Germany has lagged on phase-out and is now accelerating with closures targeted for 2030 (lignite by 2038). OECD coal demand will likely halve again by 2035 even on conservative scenarios.
China and India face different constraints
China is both the world's largest coal consumer and the world's largest solar and wind builder. Chinese coal demand has likely peaked but the decline trajectory is uncertain — coal still provides 60% of electricity and underpins much heavy industry (steel, cement). India's coal demand is growing 4-6% per year, driven by electricity demand from a growing economy. Both countries' coal use is unlikely to fall fast enough to align with 1.5°C pathways without major policy changes.
Coal is sticky in steel and cement
Coal in electricity is being displaced by gas and renewables. Coal in industrial heat — especially for cement and steel — has weaker substitutes. Metallurgical coal for blast-furnace steelmaking has no current commercial alternative at scale; direct-reduction-iron with hydrogen is emerging but expensive. Cement has been harder to decarbonise than electricity for similar reasons. Phase-outs that ignore industrial coal miss roughly 30% of the coal problem.
Global coal consumption 1990–2024
Billion tonnes per year
Key Finding: Global coal use is at an all-time high; the OECD decline has been more than offset by China and India growth.
Coal consumption — major countries (2024)
Billion tonnes per year
Key Finding: China alone consumes more than half of global coal; India's share is rising fastest among major emitters.
Methodology & caveats
Thermal vs metallurgical coal
Thermal coal (~85% of total demand) is burned for electricity and heat. Metallurgical coal (coking coal) is used to make steel via blast furnace. The two markets have different prices and dynamics. Metallurgical coal demand is more inelastic — steelmaking has fewer near-term alternatives — while thermal coal is being undercut by gas and renewables in electricity.
Reserves vs reserves-to-production
Proven coal reserves exceed 1,000 Bt globally — over 100 years at current consumption rates. Coal isn't running out physically; it's being displaced economically and environmentally. Reserve estimates are conservative and have been roughly constant for decades. The constraint on coal use is not supply but climate, air pollution, and competitive economics.
Capacity vs consumption
Coal-fired power capacity (~2,100 GW global) is roughly stable — slow new additions in Asia balanced by retirements elsewhere. But capacity factors are falling as more plants run only in peak hours. A coal plant running 30% of the time (winter peaks) is much less harmful than one running 80% — but capacity statistics treat them identically. Generation (TWh) is the better metric than capacity (GW).