Fossil Fuels Statistics
The fossil fuel era nearing its end. Coal, oil, gas all peak by 2030 under current policies. Still 82% of primary energy (492 EJ) but share declining. Power generation fossil share dropped below 60% for first time since 1940s.
Key Fossil Fuel Insights
Coal Decline Accelerating
Coal consumption 165 EJ (2024), peaks ~2025 then falls. Power generation 10,613 TWh (+1.2%, slowest growth). China 55% of coal use but adding solar faster. India +6% coal but transitioning. US, EU coal down 50% since 2015. 200+ coal plants retired 2024. Unabated coal incompatible with 1.5°C. Stranded asset risk $1T+.
Oil Demand Plateauing
Oil 179 EJ (102 million barrels/day), peaks 2029 under current policies. Transport 55% of demand. EVs displacing 1.8M barrels/day (2024). Petrochemicals growing +3%/year—will be largest sector by 2030. OPEC+ production cuts fail to lift prices. Peak oil narrative flipped: demand peak (not supply). Net zero requires 75% cut by 2050.
Gas: Last Fossil Standing
Natural gas 148 EJ, peaks 2030. Power generation +2.5% (2024)—fastest fossil growth. LNG trade 540 Mt. Gas bridge fuel narrative weakening—methane leaks (2.5% of production) negate 20% of CO₂ benefit. Asia driving growth: Japan, S. Korea, India. Europe cutting Russian gas (-50% since 2021). US dominates LNG exports 140 Mt. Renewable+battery combo undercutting gas peakers.
Fossil Share Declining Fast
Fossil fuels 82% of primary energy (2024), down from 86% (2000). Electricity share fell 60.6% → 59.1% (2024)—first time below 60% since 1940s. Renewables captured 92.5% of capacity additions. Investment shift: renewables $600B vs fossils $500B (2024). Fossil fuel subsidies $700B—7× clean energy subsidies. Phase-out by 2050 for 1.5°C.
Fossil Fuel Consumption by Type (2000-2024)
Primary energy in exajoules (EJ)
Key Finding: Oil grew from 145 EJ (2000) to 179 EJ (2024), gas 85 → 148 EJ, coal 95 → 165 EJ. Total fossil 325 → 492 EJ. Coal plateaued 2013-present. Oil+gas still growing but slowing. 2024 growth +1.2%—slowest since 2020 pandemic. Peak imminent for all three.
Fossil Fuel Peak Projections (IEA STEPS)
Consumption projections under Stated Policies Scenario
Key Finding: Coal peaks ~2025 at 165 EJ, declines to 140 EJ by 2040. Oil peaks 2029 at 182 EJ, falls to 175 EJ by 2040. Gas peaks 2030 at 152 EJ, stays flat to 2040. All fossil fuels peak this decade even without new climate policies—driven by economics, not mandates.
Coal Power Generation by Region (2024)
Electricity from coal in TWh
Key Finding: China 5,800 TWh coal power (55% of global), India 1,400 TWh, USA 750 TWh, EU 380 TWh. China alone > rest of world combined. But China's coal growth slowing: +1% (2024) vs +10% (2010s). India coal +6%—last major growth market. OECD coal down 60% since peak (2007).
Oil Demand by Sector (2024)
Million barrels per day (mb/d)
Key Finding: Transport consumes 56 mb/d (55% of oil), petrochemicals 16 mb/d (16%), industry 13 mb/d, power 4 mb/d, buildings 8 mb/d. Road transport 42 mb/d—but EVs displacing 1.8 mb/d growth annually. Aviation/shipping growing +3% as hardest to electrify. Petrochemicals only growth sector long-term.
Natural Gas Production & Trade (2024)
Production and LNG exports in billion cubic meters
Key Finding: USA 1,050 bcm production (25% of global), Russia 630 bcm, Iran 250 bcm, China 230 bcm. LNG trade 540 Mt—USA 140 Mt (26%), Australia 90 Mt, Qatar 80 Mt. Europe pivoted from Russian pipeline to global LNG post-Ukraine. Asia 400 bcm imports drives demand. Gas balancing renewables short-term but storage+batteries better long-term.
Understanding Fossil Fuel Data
Key Concepts
Primary Energy (EJ): Total energy content of fuels consumed, including conversion losses. 1 EJ ≈ 25 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe).
Reserves vs Resources: Proven reserves economically recoverable today. Resources include unproven, uneconomic deposits. R/P ratio (reserves/production) misleading—new discoveries, technology.
Peak Demand vs Peak Supply: Historic peak oil concern was supply shortage. Current peak driven by demand destruction—renewables, efficiency, electrification undercutting economics.
Stranded Assets: Fossil infrastructure uneconomic before end of life due to climate policy, renewable competition. Coal plants, oil fields, pipelines at risk. Estimates $1-4T by 2030.
Measurement Units
- Oil: Barrel (bbl) = 42 gallons = 159 liters = 6.1 GJ. Million barrels/day (mb/d) standard unit. 1 mb/d = 50 Mt/year ≈ 2.1 EJ/year.
- Gas: Cubic meter (m³), billion cubic meters (bcm). US uses cubic feet. 1 bcm = 35.3 bcf = 36 PJ. LNG: million tonnes (Mt). 1 Mt LNG ≈ 1.4 bcm gas.
- Coal: Tonnes coal equivalent (tce). 1 tce = 29.3 GJ. Quality varies: anthracite (high), bituminous, sub-bituminous, lignite (low). Heating value 15-30 GJ/tonne.
Data Caveats
Production data from government agencies (EIA, BP, Energy Institute). OPEC/Russia data less transparent. Flaring, methane leaks often excluded—undercount emissions by 10-30%. Energy content conversions use standard factors but actual values vary by source quality. Reserve estimates politically influenced—OPEC quotas tied to reserves, incentivizing overstatement.