Oil & Gas Prices
Brent crude trades near $78 a barrel after OPEC+ extended voluntary supply cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. European gas at the TTF hub sits at €33/MWh — a quarter of the 2022 spike but still double the pre-crisis average. US Henry Hub gas remains structurally cheap on shale abundance.
Key insights
OPEC+ holds the supply lever
Saudi Arabia and seven OPEC+ partners maintain voluntary cuts totalling 2.2 mb/d on top of the 2 mb/d group cut from October 2022. Unwinding has been deferred three times. Spare capacity sits near 5 mb/d, mostly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — large enough to absorb a modest demand pickup but no longer enough to cushion a major supply outage.
Russian oil flows redirected, not cut
G7 price cap (set at $60/barrel) and EU import ban shifted Russian seaborne crude flows from Europe to India, China and Turkey. Discounts to Brent compressed from $30 (early 2023) to $10–15 (2026). Russian production is roughly flat at 9.4 mb/d; the policy reduced revenue per barrel but not volume.
European gas re-priced higher, US still cheap
EU TTF averaged €40/MWh in 2024–25, falling toward €33 in 2026 as LNG capacity expanded. The structural premium over Henry Hub (about $3/MMBtu) reflects ~$5–7/MMBtu of liquefaction-plus-shipping cost. US LNG export capacity reaches 21 bcf/d in 2026 with five new trains commissioning.
Brent and WTI crude — annual averages 2010–2026
Spot prices, USD per barrel
Show data table
| Brent | WTI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 80 | 79 |
| 2012 | 112 | 94 |
| 2014 | 99 | 93 |
| 2016 | 44 | 43 |
| 2018 | 71 | 65 |
| 2020 | 42 | 39 |
| 2022 | 99 | 95 |
| 2024 | 80 | 76 |
| 2026 | 78 | 74 |
Key Finding: Brent averaged $109 (2011–14), collapsed to $44 (2016), peaked $99 (2022), and has settled in a $75–85 trading range under OPEC+ management.
Natural gas prices — TTF and Henry Hub 2018–2026
Annual average, USD/MMBtu equivalent
Show data table
| TTF (EU) | Henry Hub (US) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7.9 | 3.1 |
| 2019 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| 2020 | 3.2 | 2 |
| 2021 | 16 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 41 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | 14.2 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 10.3 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 10.1 | 3.1 |
Key Finding: TTF spiked above $50/MMBtu in 2022; the trans-Atlantic premium has since compressed but remains structurally elevated. Henry Hub trades on shale fundamentals.
Methodology & caveats
Benchmarks and what they cover
Brent crude (North Sea blend) prices about two-thirds of internationally traded crude. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the US benchmark, slightly lighter and sweeter, settled at Cushing, Oklahoma. The Brent-WTI spread reflects pipeline economics and US export logistics — typically $3–6/barrel.
Gas markets are regional
Unlike oil, natural gas is expensive to transport. The three main regional benchmarks — TTF (Northwest Europe), Henry Hub (US Gulf), JKM (Asia LNG) — can diverge by 5–10× during stress events. LNG re-export economics tie them together over time but not in real time.
Spot, forward and physical
Spot prices reflect immediate delivery; forward curves price future delivery dates. Major producers and utilities transact under long-term contracts (often oil-indexed) that obscure the published spot moves. Always check which series is being quoted.