Wind Energy
Global wind power capacity reached 1,050 GW in 2024 — about 8% of world electricity generation. China alone hosts 470 GW; the US 150 GW; Germany 70 GW. Offshore wind, while only 12% of installed wind capacity, is the fastest-growing segment — capacity has tripled since 2019 with new fields commissioning in the North Sea, East Asia and the US East Coast.
Key insights
Capacity factors are everything
A 1 MW wind turbine doesn't produce 1 MW continuously — it produces 1 MW only when the wind blows hard enough. Modern onshore wind achieves 35-45% capacity factors (vs ~10% for early turbines). Offshore wind achieves 40-55% because winds are stronger and steadier. Capacity factor determines actual generation per dollar of capex — a 20% capacity factor doubles effective LCOE versus a 40% capacity factor for the same hardware.
Offshore wind is becoming utility-scale
First offshore wind installation: 1991 (Denmark, 5 MW). By 2024, single offshore projects exceed 1.5 GW (Hornsea 3, Dogger Bank). Turbines have grown from 0.5 MW (1991) to 15+ MW (2024). Floating offshore wind, which can operate in deeper water than fixed-bottom, has reached commercial pilot scale (Hywind Tampen, Kincardine). The 2030 outlook calls for 380 GW global offshore wind capacity — a 5x increase from today.
Onshore wind LCOE has tracked solar's decline
Onshore wind LCOE fell from ~$100/MWh (2010) to $35-60/MWh (2024). Offshore wind from $200/MWh to $80-120/MWh — costs are still falling but more slowly. The cost decline has been driven by larger turbines (longer blades, taller towers), better siting algorithms, manufacturing scale, and supply chain integration. Maintenance, decommissioning, and grid-integration costs are now larger relative shares of total cost than in solar.
Top countries by installed wind capacity (2024)
GW total, onshore + offshore
Key Finding: China and the US together hold over half of world wind capacity. Germany, UK and India follow in the next tier.
Global offshore wind capacity 2010–2024
GW installed
Key Finding: Offshore tripled since 2019. China's accelerated installations 2020-22 changed the global ranking — China is now #1 in offshore capacity.
Methodology & caveats
Onshore vs offshore economics
Onshore wind: cheaper capex per MW, lower capacity factor, easier maintenance, faces siting pushback. Offshore: 2-3× more expensive capex, but higher capacity factor and less land-use conflict. The LCOE crossover depends heavily on local wind resource and grid-connection costs. Floating offshore enables development in deep-water areas (US West Coast, Japan, Norway, Mediterranean) but adds 15-25% to costs versus fixed-bottom.
Intermittency and curtailment
Wind is variable: a region can have weeks of low output. As wind penetration rises, the value of marginal wind generation falls — when 50% of the grid is wind and it's windy, prices crash. Solutions: transmission expansion (smoothing across geography), storage, demand response, complementary firm generation. Curtailment (wind asked to stop generating despite available wind) is now meaningful (5-15%) in high-penetration regions.
Turbine size growth
Turbine nameplate size has grown from 50 kW (1985) to 50 kW per blade-meter today — i.e. 15 MW turbines with 220m rotors. Larger turbines have higher capacity factors (steadier winds at altitude) and lower per-MW capex. Practical limits: blade aerodynamics, tower fatigue, logistics of moving 100-meter blades by road or barge. Floating offshore enables further size growth.