Economic Complexity Index
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) ranks countries by the diversity and sophistication of what they export. Japan, Switzerland and South Korea top the latest Harvard Growth Lab rankings, while resource-dependent economies sit at the bottom. Complexity is one of the strongest known predictors of long-run income and growth.
Key Economic Complexity Insights
Japan tops the world
Japan leads the Economic Complexity Index with a score of 2.26, ahead of Switzerland (2.14), South Korea (2.04), Germany (1.94) and Singapore (1.83). These economies export a broad mix of highly sophisticated machinery, chemicals and electronics.
China's dramatic climb
China has risen to 18th in the ECI ranking, up from the mid-40s in the 1990s, as it shifted from simple goods to complex electronics and machinery. The Philippines (30th) and Vietnam (51st) are among the other big long-run gainers.
Resource economies rank last
Countries whose exports are dominated by a few raw commodities sit at the bottom: Chad (-2.47), Guinea (-2.42) and Liberia (-2.44). Concentrated oil or mineral exports signal little productive know-how.
Complexity predicts growth
Harvard's Growth Lab finds that complexity is a leading predictor of future growth. East and Southeast Asia, led by China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia, are projected to grow fastest precisely because they have diversified into more complex products.
Most Complex Economies
Top-ranked countries by Economic Complexity Index score, plus the United States and China for comparison.
Key Finding: Japan leads at 2.26, with Switzerland (2.14) and South Korea (2.04) close behind; China trails the leaders at 1.33.
Least Complex Economies
Lowest-ranked countries by ECI score, dominated by economies reliant on a handful of raw commodities.
Key Finding: Chad (-2.47), Liberia (-2.44) and Guinea (-2.42) rank near the bottom of the world's roughly 133 ranked economies.
China's Rise in the Rankings
China's position in the Economic Complexity Index over time (a lower rank number means more complex).
Key Finding: China has climbed from around 46th in 1995 to 18th in the latest data, one of the largest long-run gains of any major economy.
Biggest Long-Run Gainers
Places climbed in the ECI ranking over the decade ending 2022 for standout improvers.
Key Finding: The Philippines (now 30th) gained the most among notable movers, followed by Cambodia, Vietnam and China.
Complexity vs Income
ECI score alongside GDP per capita, showing how more complex economies tend to be richer.
Key Finding: High-complexity Switzerland and Japan pair with high incomes, while low-complexity Chad and Nigeria remain poor.
Understanding Economic Complexity
What the ECI measures
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) ranks countries by the productive knowledge embedded in what they export. Rather than counting the dollar value of trade, it asks how diverse and how sophisticated a country's export basket is. Scores in the latest Harvard Growth Lab rankings run from roughly +2.3 for Japan down to around -2.5 for Chad, with about 133 economies ranked.
Diversity and ubiquity in the product space
Complexity is inferred from two ideas. Diversity is how many distinct products a country exports competitively; ubiquity is how many other countries also export each of those products. Complex economies make many products, including ones that few others can make. The product space maps how related products cluster, showing which new capabilities a country can realistically grow into from what it already does.
Why complexity predicts growth
Harvard's Growth Lab finds the ECI is one of the strongest predictors of future economic growth, often outperforming measures like governance or competitiveness indices. Countries whose complexity exceeds what their current income would suggest tend to grow faster as they cash in that latent know-how. This is why fast diversifiers such as China, Vietnam and India top the Growth Lab's projections for the coming decade.
Caveats: it is built on export data
Because the ECI is computed from international trade (export) data, it captures tradable goods far better than services, and small specialised exporters or re-export hubs can score unusually high. It also says little about how the gains from complexity are distributed within a country. The index is best read as a measure of an economy's productive capabilities, not a complete picture of living standards or well-being.