Diabetes
Approximately 537 million adults worldwide live with diabetes — a four-fold increase since 1980. About 90% have Type 2 diabetes. Prevalence is now highest in the Middle East and North Africa, the Western Pacific, and South Asia. Diabetes kills 6.7 million people a year — almost as many as tuberculosis and malaria combined.
Key insights
Four-fold rise in 40 years
Global diabetes prevalence rose from ~108 million (1980) to ~537 million (2024). The rise tracks obesity and population aging, plus more accurate diagnosis. Type 2 diabetes accounts for the bulk of the increase. The largest absolute growth has been in middle-income countries — China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico together hold over half of the world's diabetes cases.
Geographic shift
Highest prevalence: Pacific Island nations (Marshall Islands, Nauru, Tuvalu — 25%+), Gulf states (Kuwait 16%, Saudi Arabia 18%), Egypt (20%), Pakistan (16%). Lowest: most of sub-Saharan Africa (3-6%) and rural East Asia. The pattern aligns with obesity geography — but Asian populations develop diabetes at lower BMIs than European or African populations due to differences in body composition and insulin sensitivity.
Treatment access is uneven
Insulin (necessary for Type 1, often required for advanced Type 2) costs $5-15/month in countries with strong price negotiation; up to $100-300/month in the US. GLP-1 receptor agonists (semaglutide, tirzepatide) are revolutionizing both diabetes and obesity treatment but cost $1,000+ per month and remain almost entirely unavailable in low-income countries. The therapeutic frontier is widening, but the access gap is widening with it.
Diabetes prevalence — selected countries (2024)
% of adults aged 20-79
Key Finding: Pacific Island and Gulf states lead; sub-Saharan Africa still has relatively low prevalence but the fastest projected growth.
People with diabetes globally 1980–2024
Millions of adults
Key Finding: Quadrupled in four decades — driven by obesity, aging, and improved diagnosis.
Methodology & caveats
Type 1 vs Type 2
Type 1: autoimmune destruction of insulin-producing pancreatic beta cells. Typically onset in childhood/adolescence. Requires insulin replacement for life. Type 2: insulin resistance plus declining beta-cell function. Typically onset in adulthood. Strongly linked to obesity, physical inactivity, age. Gestational diabetes occurs during pregnancy. The 90/10 ratio (Type 2/Type 1) applies globally but with regional variation.
Diagnosed vs undiagnosed
IDF estimates 240 million people (~45% of cases) are undiagnosed. Symptoms can be mild until complications develop. HbA1c testing has improved diagnosis where accessible. Public health screening programmes exist in some countries (UK NHS Health Check, US Medicare) — coverage is uneven. The undiagnosed share is highest in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Complications dominate the burden
Diabetes-related deaths are largely from complications: cardiovascular disease (50% of diabetes deaths), kidney disease, infections, amputations, blindness. Tight glycemic control plus risk-factor management (statins, blood pressure) reduces complications substantially. Modern Type 2 treatment (SGLT-2 inhibitors, GLP-1 agonists) reduces cardiovascular and kidney outcomes independently of glucose control — a major therapeutic shift since 2015.