Marriage Rates
Marriage rates have fallen substantially across most advanced economies over the past 50 years. The US marriage rate fell from 10.9 per 1,000 (1972) to 6.0 per 1,000 (2024). Japan, Italy, Spain, Korea, Germany, France — all show similar patterns. Median age at first marriage has risen 4-7 years across the OECD. Cohabitation, single-person households, and delayed family formation have grown in parallel.
Key insights
Marriage decline is widespread
OECD marriage rates fell ~40% since 1970. The decline has been continuous and broad-based — Northern Europe and East Asia at the front. Drivers: rising female labor-force participation, contraception, expanded acceptable life paths, declining religious affiliation, educational expansion, urbanization, declining housing affordability, gendered division-of-labor expectations. Different countries emphasize different drivers but most contribute everywhere.
Age at first marriage has risen sharply
Median age at first marriage in the US: 21 (women), 23 (men) in 1970; 28 (women), 30 (men) in 2023. Similar shifts across the OECD. South Korea now sees first-marriage ages of 32 (women) / 34 (men) — among the world's oldest. India and most of Africa still see relatively young first marriages (early-mid 20s). The age shift reflects extended education, career establishment before family formation, and rising housing costs.
Cohabitation and unmarried childbearing have risen
Sweden: 60% of children born to unmarried parents (though most in stable cohabiting relationships). France: 65%. UK: 51%. US: 40%. Italy: 35%. The trend has decoupled marriage from family formation. In Korea and Japan, by contrast, cohabitation remains rare — but marriage decline has happened anyway, contributing to extremely low fertility.
Marriage rate — selected countries 1970 vs 2024
Per 1,000 population
Key Finding: Universal decline across OECD economies. Some emerging markets also showing decline.
Median age at first marriage — women, selected countries
Years
Key Finding: Has risen 5-10 years across the OECD since 1970.
Methodology & caveats
Crude marriage rate
Crude marriage rate = marriages / total population × 1,000. Sensitive to age structure — an older population shows lower CMR for the same age-specific marriage rates. Age-standardized marriage rates or first-marriage rates per never-married adult give cleaner comparisons but are less widely reported.
Cohabitation measurement
Cohabitation is harder to measure than marriage — no single legal event marks its beginning. Census-based estimates capture cohabiting couples; longitudinal surveys track entries and exits. Definitions vary across countries (some require shared residence, some require relationship reporting). Same-sex relationships are now included in most counts but historically were excluded.
Why marriage matters
Marriage affects: fertility (married couples have more children), wealth accumulation, child outcomes (research consistently shows benefits even controlling for selection), housing patterns, tax policy. Decline in marriage correlates with declining fertility but doesn't fully explain it — countries with high non-marital births can sustain replacement fertility (France); countries with low non-marital births and low marriage can't (Korea).